2020 Tech Predictions

Humans are notoriously terrible at making predictions, but what’s more fun than trying?

Here are my predictions for tech startups in 2020. 

Finding New Customers on Facebook Dies  

Customer acquisition costs (CAC) has risen almost 50% over the past five years 1. The glory days of acquiring a new customer for a few cents spent on Facebook ads are long gone. Instagram influencers' fees are increasing as well, with the average cost for a sponsored Instagram photo increased by 44% from 2018 to 2019. For a sponsored blog post, it has soared from $7.39 in 2006 to $1,442 in 2019. Startups, especially direct-to-consumer, will need to experiment with other channels to find new customers or face stalled growth. 

My prediction is that Venmo will be one of the top new channels to acquire users. Venmo is a special place protected from internet trolls and fake news. It’s arguably a social media network doubling as a payment platform. Smart brands know that younger people enjoy scrolling through their Venmo feed to see how people are spending their money and discover news on who is dating who based on dinner and drink exchanges indicated by emojis. Brands will pay micro-influencers to post about their brand and send small payouts via Venmo, thus increasing free media. It’s a blank canvas with no rules ready for experimentation. 

The Milkman is Returning

Sustainable packaging is going mainstream in 2020. Companies like the Package Free Shop and Loop are making it easier to buy products without adding more plastic to landfills. By the end of next year, you’ll walk down a new aisle in Target and grab a toothpaste in reusable glass containers or aluminum bottles.

Sustainable products from Loop Store

Sustainable package is at the state organic produce was ten years ago. Although a niche audience will purchase these items, the movement has kicked off. It will grow. Consumers will vote with their dollars next year, and companies will take notice. 

Sharing Is Caring

Micro-sharing will take off. Before Rent the Runway popularized sharing clothes, buying previously worn clothes was frowned upon unless you identified as thrift shopper or didn’t have a choice. Before Airbnb monetized couch surfing, people didn’t open their guest rooms to strangers. Americans are becoming more nomadic, showing steady growth in renters since 2006. As people’s comfort level sharing items increases, as well as enjoyment with paying less, and being a conscious consumer, more renting options, will prevail. Soon, it will be mainstream to share everyday items, like clothes, to large purchases, like boats, to infrequent things like sandblasters. When a friend visits and comments on the couch, it won’t be weird to reply, “thanks, I rented it!”

Rent toys from Toy Library

We’ve Got Spirit, Yes We Do! We’ve Got E-Sports, Do You?

You may not know about it or participate in an underworld happening all around you. You will soon because, by 2021, more than 600 million people will view e-sports. They will rival the biggest traditional sports leagues NBA or NFL, according to a former ESPN executive. Underground, global, and fragmented, the industry will consolidate as money pours into making the industry… well, make money. Ready to shell out big bucks, advertisers are eager to flash their brands to the main e-sports demographic: captivated audience of teenagers. Professional leagues are organizing. E-sports scholarships exist for high schoolers. In 2020, don’t let it blow your mind when a nephew or niece tries out for the Overwatch League instead of the local high school sports team.

E-sports tournament viewers fill up an arena

Millennials Manage… Themselves?

But, not just for work. Customer relationship management (CRM) is a massive market for businesses that buy software to manage and organize all of the information they have about their customers. It’s unsexy yet lucrative. Until Millennials came along and started using it to organize their personal lives. Software previously exclusive to the office, like Google Sheets, is being used to plan and coordinate personal activities like international trips. Friends message about their upcoming book club in the office-messaging software, Slack. Color-coded cells indicate planned itineraries or act as a reminder to contact an old friend. Eye-rolls aside, managing personal things like friendships, chores, travel with specialized software is coming to a Millennial near you. 

Headline Winner Next Year

Healthcare is going to get shaken up in 2020. As health care dominates the political debates next year, the tech giants will be hard at work innovating in health tech.

Around the corner, Amazon may unbundle your local pharmacy, Google will launch a telemedicine product, and Apple will alert you about a stroke via your iWatch. Why do these companies want to improve the lives of people? Money, of course. Chronic diseases affect forty-one percent of the country, and the opportunity to be the always-on, go-to source for health are what executives dream about at night. The tech giants will roll out unique health tech products next year intersecting with a divided political system over healthcare. 

This will get interesting!

Come Tomorrow  

If this post made you cringe, don’t forget what Alan Kay once said...